Is Technological Progress Slowing Down?
When you think about groundbreaking advancements and colossal intellectual leaps, it’s easy to envision the European Renaissance or the modern tech hubs around the globe. Yet, many often overlook a crucial period between the 8th and 14th centuries: the Islamic Golden Age. This era produced a wide range of discoveries and innovations. However, this golden age did not last forever, around the 12th century the rate of scientific progress considerably slowed down. There are many explanations as to why this occurred. some include the rise of orthodox views, Mongol invasion, crusades, and political fragmentation. Throughout history, in many cultures, we see a period of growth, where civilizations flourished for a certain period of time and then their economic and technological developments started to decline. No civilization is exempted from this.
But what is so different about the modern growth era? we have reached unprecedented growths of technological progress to this day. How long will this continue? Will there be a slowdown in innovation and a plateauing of technological advancement?
In technology, building upon foundational innovations to create cutting-edge technology can be compared to advancing to a new level in a game. Imagine starting a new game. In the beginning, as with many games, you level up quickly. The tasks you need to complete are basic, and the rewards come fast. This initial phase can be equated to the early days of scientific discovery and technological progress. The low-hanging fruit principles theories or inventions such as the wheel, fire, or basic arithmetic are discovered and developed. However, as you advance in the game, each subsequent level becomes progressively harder to achieve. You might need exponentially more experience points or know as the XP points to progress from level 20 to 21 than you did from level 1 to 2. Similarly, in science and technology, as we dig deeper into advanced topics, the discoveries become more intricate. For instance, while inventing the basic microchip was not an easy task. Then the task of doubling its processing power every two years is like the increasing XP points needed for each level up.
Studies have shown that technological progress is already slowing down. A paper titled “Papers and patents are becoming less disruptive over time” has concluded that recent scientific and technological advancements do not seem to be leading to groundbreaking discoveries and innovations. In another research paper titled “ Are Ideas Getting Harder to Find?” they present evidence across numerous sectors, products, and companies, there’s a notable increase in research efforts, yet a pronounced decrease in research productivity. Between 1870 and 1920, a surge of technological advancements across various industries transformed the modern world, laying the groundwork for the 20th century. In transportation, the automobile came into being, revolutionizing personal and commercial movement. In communication, the period marked the introduction of the telephone by Alexander Graham Bell. Nikola Tesla’s contributions to alternating current (AC) systems provided efficient electricity distribution, powering cities and industries. The world of entertainment witnessed the magic of motion pictures, with filmmakers developing early versions of cameras and projectors and many more in the fields of healthcare, manufacturing, and agriculture. In essence, the half-century from 1870 to 1920 was a whirlwind of innovation, with each industry experiencing transformative changes that would shape the course of the 20th century and beyond. But since the 1970’s there has been great progress only in the field of information and communication technologies. The pace of progress in other areas seems to have been slowed significantly.
Tackling the problem
One solution to this problem is that government could try to get more people to become scientists and engineers. As the population grows, the sheer number of minds available to tackle complex problems multiplies. This crowdsourcing of intellectual capacity means that there are more individuals to think, debate, experiment, and innovate. with more people, there’s a higher chance of having more geniuses. A vast population is more likely to produce individuals with the rare combinations of skills, talent, and intuition that lead to revolutionary breakthroughs.
For a very long time, we saw a gradual accumulation of technology and population. But we can’t expect this trend to continue indefinitely. The UN has projected that the global population will continue to grow during the 21st century but at a slower rate compared to recent decades. However, it is expected to plateau by the end of the century, nearing 11 billion. Fertility rates are decreasing in many parts of the world. The global fertility rate has fallen from just above 5 births per woman in the 1960s to around 2.5 by the 2010s. Several countries have fertility rates below the replacement level of roughly 2.1 births per woman.
People in wealthy countries are choosing to have fewer children. The fertility rate 0.4 in south Korea, 1.10 in Singapore and 1.34 in Japan. As a result working age population is starting to peak and decline in these countries.
Another possible solution to tackle the technological slowdown could be rapid advancements in artificial general intelligence and biotechnology. The former could replace human worlds including engineers and researchers. This would allow to increase in the number of researchers working in state-of-the-art research.
Advancements in biotechnology could help us create genetically engineered human beings with greater research abilities. We know this is already within our technological reach but what about the ethical cause? this still remains a controversial subject. The notion of creating a being for a predefined purpose challenges many ethical, philosophical, and religious beliefs about the sanctity and autonomy of individual life. So far I believe as a global society we have made the right decision to not move forward with it which is for the best as it could create ethical, identity, economic, and political complexities.
In conclusion, if we don’t quadruple our efforts in research and deploy breakthrough technology or if the population decline seems inevitable as predicted then we are more likely heading a technological stagnation
