Climate Alert: Depletion of 1.5°C Carbon Budget Anticipated by 2029

The alarming rate at which we are depleting Earth’s available carbon budget has left scientists deeply concerned. Recent scientific findings reveal that we’re on course to breach the critical 1.5°C limit by 2029 instead of the previously projected mid-2030s. Far earlier than anticipated.

What is a carbon budget?

This budget represents the total amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions that can be released into the atmosphere while still keeping global warming below a specific temperature threshold. This level is associated with the Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels by 2100, with an aspiration to keep it below 1.5°C.

The carbon budget is typically measured in Gigatonnes (Gt) of CO2, and it’s a finite and dwindling resource. Once this budget is exhausted, we risk crossing the threshold into a world of more severe and irreversible climate impacts. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for every 1000 GtCO2 emitted by human activity, global surface temperature rises by 0.45°C. The report also mentions that we could afford to emit another 500 GtCO2 and still have a 50% chance of keeping the temperature under 1.5°C.

Global emissions are on track to set a new record this year, estimated to reach approximately 40 billion tonnes. According to a new paper published in Nature Climate Change, we can only emit another 250 GtCO2 if we want to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C so we need to cut back on emissions more rapidly to net zero before 2030.

All hopes lost?

Are we really doomed? I don’t think so. We are not sure if the warming will continue even if we reach net zero CO₂ emissions. It is less likely that we will limit the warming by 1.5°C but that doesn't mean we should give up on hope. We are actively trying our best to cut back on emissions. Even if we do go beyond 1.5°C, history has shown humanity’s remarkable resilience in adapting to adversity, even when our capacity for mitigation falls short of our aspirations. But nevertheless, it’s a goal worth fighting for.